# Probability

## Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the bestselling author of The Black Swan and one of the foremost thinkers of our time, reveals how to thrive in an uncertain world.

Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, and rumors or riots intensify when someone tries to repress them, many things in life benefit from stress, disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls “antifragile” is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish.

In The Black Swan, Taleb showed us that highly improbable and unpredictable events underlie almost everything about our world. In Antifragile, Taleb stands uncertainty on its head, making it desirable, even necessary, and proposes that things be built in an antifragile manner. The antifragile is beyond the resilient or robust. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better.

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## Probability Theory: The Logic of Science

Going beyond the conventional mathematics of probability theory, this study views the subject in a wider context. It discusses new results, along with applications of probability theory to a variety of problems. The book contains many exercises and is suitable for use as a textbook on graduate-level courses involving data analysis. Aimed at readers already familiar with applied mathematics at an advanced undergraduate level or higher, it is of interest to scientists concerned with inference from incomplete information.

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## Leigh Nataro: What happens if you guess?

Will it rain tomorrow? How likely is your favorite team to win the Super Bowl? Questions like these are answered through the mathematics of probability. Watch this artistic visualization of your odds of passing a test if you don't know any of the answers.

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## Probabilistic Quantifier Logic for General Intelligence

Indefinite probabilities are a novel technique for quantifying uncertainty, which were created as part of the PLN (Probabilistic Logic Networks)

logical inference engine, which is a key component of the Novamente Cognition Engine (NCE), an integrative AGI system. Previous papers have discussed the use of indefinite probabilities in the context of a variety of logical inference rules, but have omitted discussion of quantification. Here, in this presentation by Matthew Ikle on the paper by the speaker and Ben Goertzel, delivered at the AGI-08 Conference on Artificial General Intelligence, this gap is filled. A mathematical procedure is provided allowing the propagation of indefinite

probabilities through universal and existential quantifiers, and also through a variety of fuzzy quantifiers corresponding to natural language quantifiers (such as “few”, “man”, “a lot”, “hardly any”, etc.).

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